Skip to main content

Why do scientists say the next 18 months will be crucial to saving the planet?



Do you remember when people said we had "12 years to save the planet"?

Now, however, there is a growing consensus that the next 18 months will be paramount in dealing with the global warming and climate change crisis, among other environmental challenges.

Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep global average temperatures below 1.5°C by the end of this century, carbon dioxide emissions would have to be reduced by 45% by 2030.

But today, scientists recognize that the decisive political steps to allow carbon cuts to actually occur will have to be taken before the end of next year.

The idea that 2020 is an important deadline was addressed by one of the world's leading climate scientists in 2017. "Climate mathematics is brutally clear: although the world cannot be cured in the coming years, it could be fatally injured by negligence by 2020," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and current director emeritus of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

The feeling that the end of next year would be a kind of last-chance deadline to contain the devastating effects of climate change is becoming increasingly evident.

"I firmly believe that the next 18 months will decide our ability to maintain climate change at survival levels and restore nature to the balance we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a recent reception for Commonwealth ministers, the community that brings together the UK and several former British colonies.

Prince Charles was making reference to important UN climate meetings scheduled until the end of 2020. Since a global climate agreement was signed in Paris in December 2015, negotiators have been committed to closing a set of standards to be followed by pact signatories.

But under the terms of the agreement, countries have also pledged to advance their plans to cut carbon emissions by the end of 2020.

One of the highlights of the IPCC report released last year was the estimate that global carbon dioxide emissions must peak by 2020 to meet the 1.5°C cap target by the end of the century.

Current plans are not strong enough to keep temperatures below the so-called safe limit. Right now, we are heading for 3°C warming by 2100.

As countries generally plan their reduction programs with five- and ten-year timeframes to achieve the 45% carbon-cutting target by 2030, the plans really need to be on the table by the end of 2020.

The first major event will be the Climate Action Summit, convened by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. It will be held in New York on September 23.

Guterres has made it clear that the summit will only make sense if the countries that come to it bring significant offers to improve their national plans to cut emissions.

This meeting will be followed by COP25 in Santiago, Chile, which will have the importance of keeping the process going.

But the key moment should be COP26, probably in the UK, which will take place at the end of 2020.

The British government believes it can use the opportunity of COP26, in an eventual post-Brexit world (after the UK left the European Union), to show that Britain has the strength to build the political will for the necessary advances, just as the French used their diplomatic strength to make the Paris agreement happen.

"If we succeed in our offer (to host COP26), we will ensure the construction of the Paris agreement and reflect the scientific evidence that we need to go further and faster," said UK Environment Minister Michael Gove recently - in his likely last speech in the post (he will have another post in the office of the new prime minister, Boris Johnson, who took office on Wednesday).

"And we need COP26 to ensure that other countries take their obligations seriously and that means leading by example. Together, we must take all the necessary measures to restrict global warming to at least 1.5 degrees Celsius.

In recent years, perhaps because of the extremes of cold and heat, or the activity of activists such as Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg and the British group Extinction Rebellion (which paralyzed London for a week in April), there seems to be a clear increase in public interest in climate change and other problems related to nature and in ideas that people can put into practice in their own lives.

The demands for action are getting stronger, and the signs are that politicians in many countries have woken up to these changes.

Ideas such as the New Green Deal (the New Green Plan, with actions such as the "decarbonization" of the U.S. economy), proposed by democratic politicians, which seemed unviable a few years ago, have gained real strength recently.

Prince Charles' perception that the next 18 months are critical is shared by some country representatives in climate negotiations.

"Our group of small island developing states shares Prince Charles' deep sense of urgency for ambitious climate action," said Ambassador Janine Felson of Belize, chief strategist for the UN's Alliance of Small Island States group.

"At the same time, we are witnessing a collective convergence of public mobilization. Climate impacts are worsening and there are strong scientific alerts that call for decisive climate leadership.

"Undoubtedly, 2020 is an important deadline for leadership to finally manifest itself.


The likely COP in the UK in 2020 could also be the time when the US would finally leave the Paris agreement, as Donald Trump announced in 2017.

But if Trump doesn't win in next year's U.S. elections, the country's position could change. A Democratic president, for example, would probably reverse the decision.

Any step could have huge consequences for the climate struggle.

At the moment, several countries seem willing to slow down the proposed changes. Last December, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Russia blocked a special IPCC report that established the need to maintain the 1.5°C increase ceiling.

A few weeks ago in Bonn, Germany, new objections from Saudi Arabia prevented the issue from entering UN negotiations.

There will be significant pressure on the host country of COP26 in 2010 to ensure substantial progress. But if there is a political turmoil surrounding Brexit (the UK's departure from the European Union), the British government may not have the necessary cacife to deal with the multiple global challenges that climate change presents.

"If we can't use this moment to accelerate our ambitions, we won't have a chance to reach a 1.5 or 2°C (temperature increase) limit," said Professor Michael Jacobs of Sheffield University, former climate advisor to former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

While the decisions made on climate change next year are critical, there are a number of other important meetings on the environment that will shape actions to preserve species and protect the oceans over the coming decades.

Earlier this year, a major study of species losses in nature and broader human impact outcomes caused a stir among governments.

The report of the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services showed that up to one million species could be lost in the coming decades.

Because of this, governments will meet in China next year to try to reach an agreement that protects animals of all kinds.

The Convention on Biological Diversity is the UN body charged with developing a plan to protect nature by 2030.

Next year's meeting could lead to a kind of "Paris agreement" for the natural world. If there is an agreement, there is likely to be an emphasis on sustainable agriculture and fisheries. It should call for greater protection for species and impose limits on deforestation.

Next year, the United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea will also meet to negotiate a new global treaty on the oceans.

If all this happens, the world may have a chance to preserve the environment.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

History of Fuel Cells

Although fuel cells were not investigated much during the 1800s and 1900s, the credit for the invention of the first fuel cells goes to William Grove. Intensive research on the topic began in the 1960s with NASA and only recently has commercialization of the technology begun to be conceivable. The image below is a summary of the history of the fuel cells. Before William Grove had invented the first fuel cell in 1839, William Nicholson and Anthony Carlislie came up with the process of using electricity of break water into hydrogen and oxygen in 1800. Willian, then, based his first fuel cell on their discovery. The device, called the gas battery or "Grove cell", was a combination of " electrodes in a series circuit, with separate platinum electrodes in oxygen and hydrogen submerged in a dilute sulfuric acid electrolyte solution" and it generated 12 amps of current at about 1.8 volts.  NASA began research on fuel cells for Project Gemini, which employed th

Solar Cells Losses and Design Part 1

We have discussed some important properties of light and characteristics of the radiation of light by our sun. In this post, we will focus on converting that light to electrical energy. This is done using the photovoltaic effect. Photovoltaics covers the direct conversion of sunlight into electrical energy, by a semiconductor material. The term photovoltaics is derived from the Greek word ‘phos’ which means light, and volt, which refers to electricity, specifically voltage. Volt is a reference to the Italian physicist Alessandro Volta, who invented the battery photovoltaic effect that was discovered in 1839, by the French physicist Emond Becquerel. At the age of 19 Becquerel created the first photovoltaic cell by illuminating platinum electrodes, coated with silver chloride in an acid solution. This device was the first to convert light into electricity. The photovoltaic effect occurs through the generation of a potential difference at the junction of two different material

Black Carbon is Found in the Amazon River after Forest Fires

In addition to the tracks of destruction in the forest, the fires in the Amazon leave traces in the Amazon River and its tributaries. Incomplete burning of tree wood results in the production of a type of carbon - known as black carbon - that reaches Amazonian waters in the forms of charcoal and soot and is transported to the Atlantic Ocean as dissolved organic carbon. An international group of researchers quantified and characterized, for the first time, the black carbon that flows through the Amazon River. The results of the study, published in Nature Communications magazine, showed that most of the material transferred to the ocean is "young," suggesting that it was produced by recent forest fires. "We found through radiometric dating analysis [a method that uses the radioisotope of natural carbon-14 occurrence to determine the age of carbonaceous materials up to about 60,000 years] and molecular composition that the largest proportion of the black carbon we found